Somalia: the Complexities

Somalia has had no central government since 1991 and that has led to displacement of many people, internally and externally. Since 2006, there has been renewed armed conflict in the country and with the rise of Al Shabaab, the situation continues to worsen. Displaced Somalis have fled to neighbouring countries, Kenya and Ethiopia, and are mostly accommodated in the Dadaab (20 years old in 2012) and Bokolmayo refugee camps respectively. Within Somalia, the Afgooye camp has continued to house fleeing Somalis from Mogadishu, where fighting is a daily occurrence. But of course other neighbours in the East and Central Africa region (Tanzania, Uganda, Djibouti, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan etc) have also continued to receive many refugees from the country.

Many African countries that have had instabilities have gone through mediation and conflict resolution processes that have ultimately led to ‘peace’. But with Somalia, it would seems like the classic mediation processes have continued to fail and many people wonder why this is the case. The Somalia conflict is a very complex issue and a number of factors have led to the crisis (the list is not by any chance exhaustive):

1. The clan structure

Most of Somalia is arid and its people have been pastoralists for centuries. Most of these communities are clan based and ruled by traditional elders. When Somalia descended into civil war, a huge number of small arms were seized by different clans and these were used to fight each other. Also, in the advent of multi-party democracy in the country in the late 60’s, most of the political parties were formed along the clan system. This has made reconciliation amongst the different clans very difficult.

2. Competition for resources

Since time in memorial, Somali clans (and due to their pastoralist nature) have clashed over resources (pasture, water and livestock). Traditionally, these disputes were settled by clan elders but as people moved into urban areas, the types of resources needed also changed. There was a quick realisation that whoever controlled government, would control the recruitment process for government employees, disbursement of foreign aid, and government resources (Elmi and Barise, 2006). Corruption, use of the military for to solve clan disputes, political patronage in appointment of government officials soon became rampant, and the overthrow of President Barre was fuelled majorly by this.

3. The Ethiopia element

Somalia and Ethiopia have had a long running conflict since time in memorial. They have both been used by the US and Soviet Union in the Cold War, have engaged in war over the Ogaden region and other conflicts (in fact, these two have been at it in 1899-1905, 1964, 1977-1978, 1982, 2006-present). There is no doubt that Ethiopia has provided arms and other machinery to rebel clans and groups to assist in fighting each further destabilising Somalia. So long as Ethiopia keeps meddling in the peace process, Somalia may remain a stateless country for a longer time to come.

4. Warlords and Al Shabaab

Since Somalia exploded, factions led by clan warlords, terrorist groups (of particular mention, Al Shabaab), proxy armies and other armed groups have determined to continue intimidating Somali civilians and using violence to detract from peace. Al Shabaab, for instance, controls the entire of southern Somalia. These groups are constantly fighting each other for control of resources and continue to destabilise the country.

Given the above, it is very difficult to claim that any one solution is required to solve the problem. Many have indeed argued that there can be no Somalia solution that assumes that Western methods will work without taking into consideration the root causes of the problem and I would support this notion.

There can be no peace in Somalia without considerations of the role of informal groupings i.e. clan systems, and incorporating these in any peace accord. Maybe a central government in Somalia must be inclusive of all the clans and perhaps local government should be based on the clan system.

Maybe resources mobilisation and use should take into consideration the best possible way of making sure that all groupings benefit from such resources.

Maybe it’s time for Somalis in exile and those at home to focus on finding a solution to the crisis that is not led by Western powers.

The Chairperson of the Somali expatriate group in South Africa was interviewed on Africa360 (eNews Channel in South Africa) a couple of weeks ago and he said that there can be no progress on the implementation of recommendations from conferences so long as these conferences are held outside Somalia, the agendas determined by non-Somalis and implementation expected to be done by Somalis. And he is right, in my opinion.

Reference

1. Elmi AA and Barise A (2006) The Somali Conflict: Root causes, obstacles, and peace-building strategies http://www.issafrica.org/pgcontent.php?UID=8319

Further Information

1. Wars between the East African neighbors of Ethiopia and Somalia http://www.historyguy.com/ethiopia_somali_wars.html
2. Roots of the Crisis (Somalia) http://www.enoughproject.org/conflict_areas/somalia/roots-crisis
3. The issues in Somalia http://www.givethemshelter.org/get-involved/the-issues-in-somalia